The phrase “history repeats itself” is attributed to either the ancient Roman historian Quintus Rufus (1st century AD) or the ancient Greek historian Thucydides (c. 460 BC – 395 BC), and means that events that have occurred in the past, whether in the actions of nations, societies, or individuals, will repeat themselves in later eras through similar processes.
This phrase is often used as a warning in relation to negative events such as war, economic crises, political instability, and natural disasters. This is because, even as times change, human nature and characteristics (desire, jealousy, lust for power, fear, etc.) remain the same, which prevents us from learning from past lessons and leads to the repetition of the same patterns and tendencies in events and mistakes throughout history.
Ancient Rome and modern Western empires were led to decline and eventual collapse by the worsening of civil war, internal corruption, external military and religious pressures, social unrest due to agricultural and food crises, and the decline of currency and economic crises. Discontent stemming from hierarchical inequality triggered the French Revolution, and this remains a common theme in modern social movements, where the demand for power transitions persists.
In reality, the repetition of history is not merely a matter of chance, but often stems from deep-seated mechanisms based on psychological and social structures. In humans, it reflects an instinctive psychological tendency to avoid change and seek stability, leading to limitations in learning and adaptability to change, and resulting in repeating the same mistakes of the past. Furthermore, in terms of social structures, those in power and the ruling class strive to introduce and maintain institutions that protect their own interests, even at the expense of spreading injustice and corruption. Even if the ruling system is overthrown by revolution or social movements, as time passes, new power holders tend to repeat the same mistakes as the old rulers.
Therefore, in order to avoid the repetition of history, it is essential to reflect on the lessons of the past, not merely as mere knowledge, but to cultivate the wisdom to recognize mistakes and overcome them. Considering and practicing how to apply these lessons to the current situation, facing various risks such as environmental problems, economic inequality, and the possibility of war, in order to build a better future, is a crucial step in breaking the cycle of history’s repetition.
Incidentally, the opening phrase of the Tale of the Heike (平家物語, c. early 13th century) can be said to aptly describe the principle of historical repetition. The original text is written in a refined seven-and-five-syllable meter style, intended for performance and recitation by Biwa hōshi (琵琶法師, lute priests). While I cannot convey the pleasantness of the original text, I will provide a translation of its content here.
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(trans)
The sound of the Jetavana-vihāra bell echoes the impermanence of all things. The color of the Shorea robusta flower illustrates the principle that even the most prosperous must inevitably decline. The glory of those who are arrogant and proud does not last long, like a fleeting dream on a spring night. Those who are powerful and influential will ultimately perish, just like dust before the wind.
Looking at examples from distant foreign lands, we find Zhao Gao of Qin, Wang Mang of Han, Zhu Ji of Liang, and Lushan of Tang—all of them disregarded the policies of their former lords and emperors, indulged in excessive pleasure, disregarded the advice of others, failed to understand the chaos in the world, and were unaware of the suffering of the people. Their glory did not last long, and they perished.
Looking at our country in recent times, Taira no Masakado of the Jōhei era, Fujiwara no Sumitomo of the Tenkei era, Minamoto no Yoshichika of the Kōwa era, and Fujiwara no Nobuyori of the Heiji era were all extremely arrogant and powerful in their own ways, but speaking of very recent times, the state of Taira no Kiyomori, the former Grand Minister of State and monk of Rokuhara, is so terrible that, from what I have heard, it is beyond imagination and cannot be described.
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In any case, while “history repeats itself” doesn’t necessarily mean fate, the rise, fall, and rebirth of civilizations, nations, and economies—that is, the constant cycle of ups and downs, of flourishing, stagnating, collapsing, and regenerating—is a pattern that has occurred many times throughout history and can still be observed in modern society.
* Rise and Fall of Nations:
Expansion and prosperity → Increased burden → Corruption and rebellion → Collapse due to external pressure
Examples: Roman Empire, Qing Dynasty, Nazi Germany, etc.
* Economics:
Innovation and fervent desire → Speculative fever → Bubble → Collapse and recession
Examples: Dutch tulip bubble (17th century), IT bubble (2000s), Great Depression (1929), Lehman Shock (2008), etc.
* Conflict and War:
Tensions → Small sparks (including causes of false flag operations) → Leading to a major war → Post-war treatment becomes the spark for the next conflict
Examples: World War I, World War II, Middle East wars, Vietnam War, etc.
* Disaster and Epidemic:
Disaster and epidemic (natural or artificial) → Social unrest (pread of infection, population reduction, food crisis, depletion of essential goods) → Collapse of the existing social system → Introduction of strict surveillance and control systems
Examples: The plague (14th-century Europe), the Spanish flu (1918), COVID-19 (2019), etc.
* Social Transformation and New Order:
Inequality and discontent → Revolution → Transition to a new system → Internal contradictions and dictatorship
Examples: The French Revolution, the Russian Revolution, the Meiji Restoration, the Xinhai Revolution, etc.
In the modern era, what leads to the “history repeating itself” phenomenon is not so much ideological, ethnic, or religious conflicts between nations, but rather the securing of energy resources—such as oil, natural gas, rare metals, renewable energy, power grids, semiconductor materials, and submarine cables—which are vital lifelines for the survival of nations, and these factors seem to be influencing the course of global affairs.
The oil shocks (oil crises), which occurred twice in the 1970s, were devastating events for the global economy caused by Middle Eastern oil-producing countries reducing crude oil exports and causing sharp price increases.
At that time, industrialized nations relied almost entirely on oil for their primary energy needs—for example, 77% in Japan—and the resulting concerns about factory shutdowns and the inability to operate vehicles, coupled with the sudden several-fold increase in crude oil prices, created an immeasurable shock.
The first oil shock (1973) was caused by OAPEC (Organisation of Arab Petroleum Exporting Countries), an organization of Arab oil-producing countries, using oil as a weapon and imposing export restrictions on developed countries. In the Fourth Arab-Israeli War (Yom Kippur War) on October 6 of the same year, when Egypt and Syria launched a surprise attack on Israel, the organization imposed an oil embargo and production cuts on Western countries and Japan that supported Israel, resulting in crude oil prices skyrocketing to about four times their original price.
Consequently, Japan’s consumer price inflation rate (1974) reached approximately 23.2%, leading to hyperinflation where prices for everything from manufactured goods to food and daily necessities soared. This resulted in long lines of people buying essential items, and supermarket shelves were emptied of goods like toilet paper and sugar, creating an economic panic.
Following the chaotic post-war period, the high economic growth that had continued since the 1950s, fueled by the special demand boom triggered by the Korean War, effectively came to a complete end at this point, with a real GDP growth rate of -1.2%, the first negative growth since the war.
Incidentally, after the end of World War II, the conflict between the US capitalist bloc and the Soviet communist bloc intensified (the so-called Cold War), and the Korean Peninsula was divided into North and South Korea along the 38th parallel, with South Korea established in the South and the Democratic People’s Republic of Korea in the North. Amidst the escalating conflict, the Korean War began on June 25, 1950, when North Korean forces invaded the South. Due to this war, the US military placed massive orders with Japanese companies, and this special demand boom allowed Japan, which had been exhausted in the post-war period, to rapidly recover socially and economically, and enter a period of economic prosperity.
The orders consisted of direct special demand for military supplies and indirect special demand related to consumption within Japan by stationed and visiting troops.
Toyota, Nissan, and Isuzu, among others, increased production of military trucks and other vehicles on a 24-hour basis. Steelworks like Yawata Steel Works operated at full capacity to produce steel essential for vehicle repairs, bridge and base construction, and other military supplies. Spinning companies met the increased demand for textiles such as uniforms, blankets, tents, and sandbags. There was also a massive demand for materials like barbed wire and medical supplies such as bandages and disinfectants. Food production saw advancements in canned goods, instant foods, and seasonings with high shelf life, which later contributed to the development of the food industry. Furthermore, Japanese companies responded to the expanding demand for rail and sea transport due to increased logistics and personnel movement, as well as the creation of base employment.
The scale of this special demand reached approximately $2.4 billion in total from 1950 to 1953, and is estimated at approximately $600 million in 1954.
Through a joint effort between the government and private sectors, thoroughly managed quality and delivery times through procurement mechanisms, and in meeting the strict standards of the U.S. military, Japanese companies dramatically refined their production and quality control. At the same time, they accumulated know-how in mass production, which later became the source of their competitiveness in terms of quality and productivity.
Furthermore, employment rapidly improved and wages rose to address labor shortages caused by full factory operation. With the abolition of the rationing system, shopping streets and restaurants regained their vibrancy, and building construction progressed in cities like Tokyo, Yokohama, and Kobe. American culture, including movies, jazz, cola, and hamburgers, flowed into Japanese society, and the streets, which had been reduced to rubble by the bombing of mainland Japan, were filled with the spirit of reconstruction and vitality.
On July 27, 1953, the Korean War armistice agreement was signed, ending hostilities. Following this, the special demand rapidly diminished, and the Japanese economy temporarily declined between 1954 and 1955. However, supported by prior capital investment, technological advancements, and established quality control, the Jimmu Boom began in November 1954, and the recovery of the Japanese economy was declared, with the statement “the postwar period is over” (1956 Economic White Paper).
Let’s return to the first oil shock.
The oil embargo was lifted in March 1974, and crude oil prices gradually stabilized, but they remained three to four times higher than before the crisis. The Japanese government shifted to austerity measures, and energy conservation efforts rapidly spread at the corporate and household levels, including in the automobile and home appliance industries.
At this time, two major trends emerged as the backdrop: the sustainability of the Earth through energy conservation and environmental protection based on a “Spaceship Earth” perspective, and the population reduction tactics that continue to this day, based on “The Limits to Growth” (1972). (ref., Earthrise And Essential Elements Of The Earth)
Also, in 1973, the Smithsonian system collapsed, ending the fixed exchange rate system and transitioning to a floating exchange rate system. The period from 1974 to 1978 served as a preparatory period for a stable growth phase, and then, in the 1980s, Japan plunged into the bubble growth period.
The second oil shock began in January 1979, approximately six years after the first. The Iranian Revolution, led by Islamic scholar Ayatollah Khomeini, overthrew the pro-American Pahlavi dynasty (the Iranian monarchy). The revolutionary government nationalized Western oil companies and drastically reduced crude oil production and exports, leading to a rapid global instability of oil supply and a sharp rise in crude oil prices.
Moreover, in September 1980, neighboring Iraq invaded Iran (the Iran-Iraq War), and for the following eight years, the Middle East oil-producing region remained unstable. Crude oil prices tripled in approximately three years, and this long-term, gradual price increase put pressure on the global economy.
The impact of the second oil shock on the Japanese economy was relatively minor compared to the first, because, empirically, energy conservation awareness was already ingrained in businesses and households, and policy responses were swift.
Conventional economic wisdom held that when the economy deteriorates, demand decreases, prices fall, and deflation occurs, meaning that inflation and recession do not occur simultaneously. But the oil shock led to a situation where production declined due to the sharp rise in oil costs, while prices rose, resulting in the so-called stagflation phenomenon where recession (stagnation) and inflation occurred simultaneously. In response to this situation, it came to be seen as essential to implement not only monetary policy but also fundamental measures including a transformation of the industrial structure.
In any case, while securing crude oil (and energy) is a top priority for every country as a lifeline, it has also been a factor that leads to conflicts, wars, diplomacy, alliances, and sanctions. Furthermore, those at the top of the hierarchy have used it as a foundation for building their systems of dominance. (ref., The Fate Of Those Whom Modern Medicine Classified As Vulnerable)
Today, oil is not merely fuel. Almost all aspects of our lives, including essential goods like automobiles, airplanes, ships, chemical products (plastics), fertilizers, and pharmaceuticals, are produced from or depend on oil. Therefore, instability in the Middle East, which holds about half of the world’s oil reserves, directly impacts the lives of people in every country worldwide, affecting energy prices, inflation, the economy, investment, and security.
As energy resources, petroleum is a liquid and natural gas is a gas; both are primarily composed of hydrocarbons (CH), which are compounds of carbon (C) and hydrogen (H). They are further classified into various types based on differences in the structure and bonding of their constituent molecules.
Petroleum is a liquid compound primarily composed of hydrocarbons, also containing sulfur (S), nitrogen (N), and oxygen (O). Crude oil is extracted from underground and processed to remove gases and water. It can then be used as petroleum by heating and distilling/decomposing it using the difference in boiling points. Petroleum is classified according to its density (API): above 39°C is ultra-light, 34-38°C is light, 29-33°C is medium, 26-28°C is heavy, and below 26°C is ultra-heavy. It is used for applications suited to its properties.
Main uses of petroleum by property:
* Light gasoline (naphtha) and diesel fuel:
Power fuel for automobiles and machinery.
* Medium to heavy crude oil:
Used as fuel for power generation in large machinery, ships, and aircraft.
* Heavy oil:
Used in PET bottles, plastics, and textiles. Also used as a raw material for chemical industry products.
When crude oil is heated and distilled, various components are separated based on their boiling points, resulting in petroleum gas, naphtha, kerosene, diesel fuel, and heavy oil, in order of increasing temperature. Naphtha is a mixture of hydrocarbons with boiling points ranging from approximately 30°C to 200°C, and it is obtained as a clear or pale yellow liquid. Naphtha is a raw material for countless chemical products essential to daily life, such as plastics, synthetic fibers, pharmaceuticals, pesticides, and paints.
Naphtha is broadly classified into light naphtha, which has a low boiling point, and heavy naphtha, which has a slightly higher boiling point. They are used differently depending on the application: light naphtha is used in the production of basic chemicals such as ethylene and propylene, while heavy naphtha is used as a component of gasoline and as a raw material for other chemicals.
Therefore, naphtha is consumed not so much as an energy source, but rather as a fundamental raw material in the petrochemical industry, a material for creating substances that are decomposed and transformed into new chemical substances.
Naphtha, used as a decomposition raw material in petrochemical complexes, is fed into a facility called a naphtha cracker (ethylene plant), which heats and decomposes it at high temperatures of over 800°C. This process produces basic chemicals such as ethylene, propylene, butadiene, and benzene. These are also called basic raw materials for petrochemicals and are further processed into a wide variety of products.
* Ethylene:
Polyethylene (PE) is produced from this, and many of the plastic products we use every day, such as shopping bags, food packaging films, bottle caps, and pipes, are made from it. Ethylene is also a raw material for ethylene glycol and is essential for the manufacture of polyester fibers (clothing and beverage bottles).
* Propylene:
Polypropylene (PP) is produced from this, and is used in a wide range of applications, including automobile parts, home appliance casings, medical syringes, and food containers. It is also a raw material for acrylic fibers and synthetic rubber.
* Butadiene:
A major raw material for synthetic rubber, it is used in automobile tires, shoe soles, and hoses. Developed by humankind as an alternative material during times of unstable natural rubber supply, it supports the modern transportation industry.
* Benzene:
A great many products start with benzene, including styrene (a raw material for plastics and insulation materials), phenol (an adhesive and pharmaceutical intermediate), aniline (a dye and pesticide), and caprolactam (a raw material for nylon).
Because naphtha is used as a raw material and countless chemical products branch out from it, a disruption in the naphtha supply affects all related industries, leading to a negative chain reaction not only in industrial production but in every aspect of life.
Due to the branching structure of production of countless chemicals using naphtha as a raw material, fluctuations in naphtha supply affect all related industries, leading to a negative chain reaction not only in industrial production but also in every aspect of life, including the plastics and packaging industry, the automotive industry, the electronics and electrical industry, agriculture and food production, the pharmaceutical and medical industry, and the construction and housing industry.
* Plastics and Packaging Industry:
The plastics industry uses polyethylene and polypropylene as raw materials, and manufacturers of food packaging films, PET bottles, containers, and bags consume large quantities of naphtha-derived resin.
In the food and beverage industry, a sharp rise in the cost of films, bottles, and trays used to wrap products can drive up consumer prices and may even lead to delays in product shipments due to the inability to package goods.
* Automotive Industry:
The automotive industry is highly dependent on naphtha-derived chemicals. Hundreds of plastic parts are used in each vehicle, including bumpers, dashboards, seat materials, interior trim, electrical wiring insulation, fuel tanks, and tires (synthetic rubber).
* Electronics and Electrical Industry:
Smartphones, personal computers, televisions, and home appliances use large quantities of plastic casings and insulating materials. Circuit boards (printed circuit boards) contain naphtha-derived chemicals such as epoxy resins. Petrochemical products, such as photoresists (photosensitive resins) and cleaning solvents, are also essential in semiconductor manufacturing processes.
* Agriculture and Food Production:
Many pesticides (insecticides, herbicides, and fungicides) are organic compounds derived from petrochemicals and synthesized from naphtha-derived intermediates. Agricultural mulch films (films laid on fields to maintain soil temperature and suppress weeds), greenhouse plastic sheets, and fertilizer bags are also petrochemicals. Ammonia, the main component of chemical fertilizers, is produced from natural gas, but petrochemicals are involved in its manufacturing process and transportation containers.
* Pharmaceutical and Medical Industry:
Many active pharmaceutical ingredients (APIs) are manufactured through organic synthesis, and many petrochemical-derived chemicals are used as raw materials for intermediates in antipyretics, analgesics, antibiotics, and anticancer drugs. Most of the instruments used daily in medical settings, such as syringes, IV bags, medical tubing, and surgical gloves (nitrile rubber), are made of plastic or synthetic rubber.
* Construction and Housing Industry:
Many building components, such as insulation materials (expanded polystyrene, rigid polyurethane foam), paints and adhesives, water pipes (vinyl chloride pipes), electrical wiring insulation, waterproofing sheets, and flooring (cushion flooring), are derived from naphtha.
Kawasaki Heavy Industries is currently working on producing naphtha from hydrogen instead of crude oil. In any case, naphtha is an indispensable commodity in modern industrial society, so shortages, sharp price increases, or depletion would affect not only the chemical industry but also every aspect of life, including food, healthcare, housing, transportation, packaging, logistics, and communication equipment.
Natural gas is a flammable gas whose main component is methane (CH4). It is lighter than air, colorless, and odorless. Compared to other fossil fuels, it is characterized by its low environmental impact, as it emits less carbon dioxide (CO2), nitrogen oxides (NOx), and sulfur oxides (SOx) when burned. Liquefied natural gas (LNG) is produced by cooling natural gas to -162°C and liquefying it.
The main uses of natural gas include supplying city gas to households, industrial use in large factories and facilities, and as a fuel for power generation. It is also used as a raw material for chemical products.
The Strait of Hormuz is a strait located between the Persian Gulf and the Gulf of Oman. With a depth of 75-100 meters and a width of approximately 33 kilometers at its narrowest point, it is dotted with several islands and serves as a vital export route for oil produced by the Persian Gulf shore countries. Approximately 20 million barrels of crude oil, representing about 20 percent of the world’s exports, pass through this strait daily, and 3,400 tankers pass through it annually. Additionally, about 20 percent of the world’s liquefied natural gas (LNG), essential for power generation, is transported through this strait. The countries that purchase crude oil from various parts of the Middle East and transport it to their own countries via the Strait of Hormuz are, in descending order: China (18%), India (16%), Japan (14%), South Korea (11%), and the United States (8%). (Source: 2018)
China, India, Japan, and South Korea consume 75 percent of the crude oil and 59 percent of the LNG that passes through the Strait of Hormuz. A blockade of the Strait of Hormuz would disrupt transportation, potentially leading not only to higher insurance premiums and transportation costs, but also to increased domestic distribution costs, higher retail prices, and shortages of petroleum products, food, daily necessities, packaging materials, and medical supplies. This is expected to trigger an unimaginable chain reaction, potentially leading to a sharp decline in GDP, hyperinflation, depletion of related supplies, and economic recession.
However, it is the ordinary people at the bottom of the social hierarchy who will suffer the consequences of this negative chain reaction. Those intentionally causing this situation are making huge profits from insider trading in the stock market, while remaining completely oblivious and inconsiderate of the inescapable damage inflicted on ordinary society struggling to make ends meet.
In the first place, most people, in order to consistently perform certain actions, regularly build behavioral chains—patterns of self-management, habit formation, and behavioral change—so that a particular action leads to another, and a series of actions are performed automatically. This automatically executed behavioral chain enables efficient movement in daily life and plays a role in saving time and energy.
The elements of a behavioral chain are:
1. Multiple Independent Behaviors (Response Units):
The chain consists of several clearly distinguishable individual behaviors.
2. Specific Sequence
The behaviors always occur in a fixed order; a change in order disrupts the smooth flow of the chain.
3. Discriminative Stimulus (SD):
The outcome of a behavior serves as a signal (discriminative stimulus) to initiate the next behavior.
4. Reinforcer:
A reinforcer is presented after the completion of the final behavior in the chain, encouraging repetition of the sequence.
This automatically executed behavioral chain not only enables efficient movement in daily life, saving time and energy, but also supports behavioral control, self-motivation, and self-management for achieving goals.
Within communities, there are phenomena such as community chains, where actions, emotions, and even the very existence of individuals influence and create a chain reaction, and social contagion, where specific actions or emotions spread to those around them, influencing attitudes and awareness and shaping group behavior.
The virtuous cycle patterns in community chains can stem from the need for recognition and self-efficacy, where one’s actions influence others, which in turn benefits oneself, leading to a sustained cycle.
On the other hand, in all areas such as the economy, society, relationships, and health, multiple factors such as psychological, structural, and external environmental changes become intertwined, and stress and anxiety can impair judgment, leading to repeated wrong choices, a cyclical deterioration of the situation, and chaos throughout society.
A typical negative cycle pattern is as follows:
* Within or outside a community:
Misunderstandings and distrust lead to reduced communication, deepening misunderstandings and worsening relationships.
* Health:
Sleep deprivation → decreased concentration → increased work errors → increased stress → further sleep deprivation.
* Economic:
Economic recession → corporate bankruptcies → increased unemployment → sluggish consumption → further economic deterioration.
The oppressive social and personal atmosphere and environment brought about by this negative cycle not only affects the sustainability of society through unemployment, worsening public safety, and increased healthcare costs, but also inevitably lowers the overall quality of life through mental strain, health deterioration, and economic hardship.
Specifically, this can lead to a vicious cycle of restricted educational and employment opportunities, perpetuating poverty across generations, exacerbating crime rates and increasing recidivism risks, and resulting in decreased productivity and increased turnover due to a lack of communication and inadequate management.
In any case, in March 2026, WTI crude oil futures, which had remained stable at around $65 per barrel until late February, rose by approximately 85% in just 10 days, recording the largest weekly increase (+35.6%) since the futures market was established in 1983. This surge is not simply due to an increase in crude oil prices, but is the result of a negative chain reaction caused by geopolitical events that are shaking the very foundations of the world’s energy supply.
In other words, the following three events, occurring in a short period of time in a chain reaction, combined with the realization of the worst-case scenario of a blockade of the Strait of Hormuz—a long-standing concern among market participants—and the accelerated market reactions brought about by the proliferation of algorithmic trading, rapidly intensified risk aversion, triggering this historic price fluctuation as a negative chain reaction.
This sequence of events is shown below in chronological order.
1. US-Israeli airstrikes on Iran (February 28):
The Trump administration, allied with and colluding with Israel, carried out airstrikes targeting Iran’s nuclear facilities and military bases, assassinating key leaders, including Supreme Leader Khamenei. This immediately pushed the situation in the Middle East beyond a critical point, and the oil market reacted instantly, with prices soaring.
2. De facto blockade of the Strait of Hormuz (March 2nd onwards):
The Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps declared a blockade of the Strait of Hormuz. This was not a physical blockade, but rather a de facto halt to passage, as major marine insurance companies withdrew their war risk insurance (effective March 5th), making it impossible for shipowners to take on the risk. This rendered the strait, through which approximately 20% of the world’s crude oil passes, non-functional, and a serious supply-demand imbalance began to occur in the market.
3. Successive production cuts by Middle Eastern oil-producing countries (March 8th onwards)：
The blockade of the strait prevented crude oil tankers from entering ports, causing onshore storage facilities in oil-producing countries to rapidly approach full capacity. Following Iraq, the UAE and Kuwait began cutting production, bringing to the surface the structural problem of supply being unable to be shipped, and prices surged to nearly $120 per barrel on March 9th.
Moreover, the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, through which tankers carrying crude oil and petroleum products (approximately 20 million barrels/day, about 20% of global demand), liquefied natural gas (LNG, about 20-25% of global trade volume, Qatar is the largest exporter), liquefied petroleum gas (LPG, about 30% of global trade volume, mainly destined for Asia), and nitrogen fertilizers and ammonia (a significant portion of global trade volume, directly linked to food production) pass, is affecting the prices of a wide range of commodities and the production of related products and agricultural crops. This is not only leading to the depletion of printing inks, building materials, and packaging materials, but is also creating a further negative chain reaction that is rapidly spreading and increasing throughout society worldwide.
In particular, nitrogen, phosphorus (ammonium phosphate), and potassium, which are essential for crop cultivation, only function when all are present. Therefore, a disruption in ammonia supply could lead to food shortages and famine.
Furthermore, a reduction in crude oil production will lead to shortages not only of gasoline but also of engine oil and lubricants, causing disruptions in logistics and increased manufacturing costs, which will be passed on to retail prices. Fuel surcharges on air and freight rates will also surge, and soaring prices and shortages of petroleum-derived raw materials will impact product costs and packaging material shortages. A disruption in LNG supply will also affect electricity and city gas prices.
Many past crude oil crises were primarily caused by reduced supply. Furthermore, in the Gulf War and the invasion of Ukraine, oil-producing countries were either aggressors or not victims. This time, however, major oil-producing countries such as Saudi Arabia, the UAE, and Kuwait are themselves unable to export. Moreover, unprecedented complex factors, such as economic blockade due to insurance withdrawals, are intertwined, making this an unprecedented situation that cannot be adequately understood through simple comparisons with past major crude oil crises. Moreover, there are currently no viable alternative routes.
* Red Sea/Suez Canal Route: This route requires passing through the Bab-el-Mandeb Strait at the southern end of the Red Sea, and the risk of Houthi attacks has resurfaced.
* Southern Africa Route via the Cape of Good Hope: This would extend transport time by 2-3 weeks and significantly increase costs.
* Pipelines owned by Saudi Arabia and the UAE: While detours are possible, their capacity would only partially compensate for the transport volume lost due to the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, and detours would become impossible if the pipelines were destroyed.
In any case, the depletion of crude oil in the market could lead to famine, scarcity, and other negative consequences, potentially resulting in the collapse of society as a physical living space. Furthermore, the implementation of predictive programming through hantavirus and Ebola suggests that a devastating artificial disaster could strike ordinary societies worldwide in the near future.
The disruption of social norms and personal routines could lead to a loss of sense of security, acceptance, and belonging among ordinary people who seek to confirm their existence and place in society by expressing their true selves and recognizing their roles. This could trigger feelings of alienation and isolation, creating a negative psychological cycle that could plunge them into despair and further exacerbate the problem.
Therefore, in order to avoid falling into a vicious cycle, meticulous attention to social conditions, thorough preparation, up-to-date information, and appropriate responses are essential.
Sincerely grateful for your financial support.
Sources and references:
Iran conflict sends U.S. gas prices soaring 56%, fueling largest inflation spike in three years
Kawasaki Heavy Industries Proposes Hydrogen-to-Naphtha Tech Amid Hormuz Supply Shock
Trump Insiders Face Wild Allegations After ‘Insane Pattern’ Spotted
Trump’s More Than 3,700 Trades Astonish Wall Street Insiders
Traders move $2 billion just 5 minutes before Trump’s comment on US-Iran talks
